Never been happy with the statistical likelihood for the various move probabilities in Warlord Games ‘Black Powder’.

Every commander on the table has a command value – usually in the range 7 to 9, but 4 to 10 is the total range; the higher the better. This can be modified for local conditions

When giving an order you roll 2d6.

Equal or 1 less – one move
2 less – two moves
3 or more less – 3 moves.

The problem is that this generally makes 2 moves the LEAST likely, which seems odd. You expect

i) 1 move most likely, 3 least, or
ii) 3 moves most likely, 1 least likely, or
iii) 2 MOST likely.

All 3 can be rationalised – increasing likelihood, or ‘2’ being the ‘ground state’. 2 moves LEAST likely makes no sense.

So recently we trialled a modification.  To get 3 moves you must roll 3 less than target AND equal or under half, otherwise it stays as ‘2’

Examples

Command 9- 3 moves on 4 or less
Command 8- 3 moves on 4 or less
Command 7- 3 moves on 3 or less

The differences can be seen in this table
Combos is number of different ways to get this result of 2d6. For example Command 8 you get 1 move on a 8 or a 7. There are 6 ways to roll 7, and 5 ways to roll 8, so ‘8 combos’ out of a total 36.

Original Method
Command 9 Command 8 Command 7
Moves Combos Chance Combos Chance Combos Chance
1 9 25.0% 11 30.6% 11 30.6%
2 6 16.7% 5 13.9% 4 11.1%
3 15 41.7% 10 27.8% 6 16.7%
New Method
Command 9 Command 8 Command 7
Moves Combos Chance Combos Chance Combos Chance
1 9 25.0% 11 30.6% 11 30.6%
2 11 30.6% 9 25.0% 7 19.4%
3 6 16.7% 6 16.7% 3 8.3%
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