Never been happy with the statistical likelihood for the various move probabilities in Warlord Games ‘Black Powder’.

Every commander on the table has a command value – usually in the range 7 to 9, but 4 to 10 is the total range; the higher the better. This can be modified for local conditions

When giving an order you roll 2d6.

Equal or 1 less – one move

2 less – two moves

3 or more less – 3 moves.

The problem is that this generally makes 2 moves the LEAST likely, which seems odd. You expect

i) 1 move most likely, 3 least, or

ii) 3 moves most likely, 1 least likely, or

iii) 2 MOST likely.

All 3 can be rationalised – increasing likelihood, or ‘2’ being the ‘ground state’. 2 moves LEAST likely makes no sense.

So recently we trialled a modification. To get 3 moves you must roll 3 less than target AND equal or under half, otherwise it stays as ‘2’

Examples

Command 9- 3 moves on 4 or less

Command 8- 3 moves on 4 or less

Command 7- 3 moves on 3 or less

The differences can be seen in this table

Combos is number of different ways to get this result of 2d6. For example Command 8 you get 1 move on a 8 or a 7. There are 6 ways to roll 7, and 5 ways to roll 8, so ‘8 combos’ out of a total 36.

Original Method | |||||||||

Command 9 | Command 8 | Command 7 | |||||||

Moves | Combos | Chance | Combos | Chance | Combos | Chance | |||

1 | 9 | 25.0% | 11 | 30.6% | 11 | 30.6% | |||

2 | 6 | 16.7% | 5 | 13.9% | 4 | 11.1% | |||

3 | 15 | 41.7% | 10 | 27.8% | 6 | 16.7% | |||

New Method | |||||||||

Command 9 | Command 8 | Command 7 | |||||||

Moves | Combos | Chance | Combos | Chance | Combos | Chance | |||

1 | 9 | 25.0% | 11 | 30.6% | 11 | 30.6% | |||

2 | 11 | 30.6% | 9 | 25.0% | 7 | 19.4% | |||

3 | 6 | 16.7% | 6 | 16.7% | 3 | 8.3% |